AI & Jobs.
I have been pondering Artificial Intelligence (AI) lately and its impact on the market in the future. There are two primary conjectures.
One is that it will create tremendous unemployment and completely change society. And we will likely have to think of solutions such as universal basic income or high taxation on large conglomerates that benefit from AI.
We can also argue that things won’t be too bad. This is similar to the argument that Luddites have made throughout history whenever a new technology appears. They fear it will replace many people and cause much damage. In reality, however, we always find new types of work to do.
The invention and spread of smartphones have disrupted many industries, resulting in job losses for millions of people. However, new opportunities, such as programming, mobile applications, and design, have opened up. These jobs did not exist before.
However, one thing to remember is that those who lose their jobs due to technology are not always the same people who gain new jobs related to that technology. This is because upskilling is not always easy.
Millions of truck drivers may soon be displaced by self-driving trucks. Can they become programmers, UX UI designers, or machine learning experts? Highly unlikely. They will need to find a different kind of job.
Creative destruction is often painful in the short term, but it has provided us many long-term benefits, such as the internet and electricity. The equation of short-term job losses and the pain of people becoming redundant versus the long-term benefits of innovation suggests that overall, the benefits outweigh the harm. However, if a government creates a general AI that can do any task better than humans, it will be a much more significant shift than past technological advances like steam power and ploughs.
This could lead to massive job losses, with no new jobs to replace them. But this may not be a bad outcome. We could envision a future in which AI and machines produce enough to provide a comfortable life for everyone on the planet. We would have all that we need.
Living with endless leisure activities without a focus can be tricky. Some people will find activities that are not purely leisure, but many will struggle.
A life without responsibility often lacks meaning. I doubt having only leisure is psychologically healthy.
In 2022, we have witnessed clear monthly progress in AI, and this acceleration will only increase.
I predict that within the next decade or so, many tasks currently done by people will no longer require human labour. AI will no longer be a distant concept but an imminent reality. I wonder if there are any jobs humans can do that AI cannot do until a general AI is created.
Humans use a lot of data to make decisions about strategy, creative thinking, critical thinking, management, and other tasks. It’s possible that these jobs won’t be easy to replace, but the future may look different. We can imagine a venture capital firm that uses algorithms to decide investments. Startups would submit their presentations, answer questions, and provide other data.
Their algorithm will produce a “yes” or “no” answer and an evaluation. They will then create the terms and offer the startup their valuation.
Flying in a commercial airliner without a pilot will be a novel experience for many of us who have only ever flown with a pilot. But for those born later, it will seem completely natural. Similarly, having a pilot will be as archaic as calling an operator to route a call, which we no longer do but was once the norm.
If you’re in your 20s, it’s vital to consider AI as a career risk and opportunity. Don’t get into an industry or job that will be wiped out in the next decade.